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The Numbers Game-Mid-terms are almost here!


The mid-term elections are almost upon us. And even before Election Day, the trend lines are clear. The race has become a numbers game. It’s nail-biting time for Dems, only because we wait to see how big the losses are. My prediction-apart from my hopes & beliefs- is that the GOP will probably pick up the Senate. Nate Silver has it as a 66% certainty. At that point, the Governor’s races will be the only bright spot on the horizon. If the Dems can pick up Florida, and perhaps knock Scott Walker out in Wisconsin, then it will be a good night. Or at least the lesser of the worst-case scenarios envisioned for the Democratic Party.
 
If the losses are contained in the Senate to either hold a 50-50 majority with VP Biden as tie-breaker, or simply at +1 for the GOP, the majority will not mean so very much for the Senate. However, the near future looks bleak in terms of endless investigations into Benghazi, the IRS, the Impeachment threat, plus whatever the GOP can find to throw at the wall. If Hillary does announce she’s running in January or February, perhaps after the State of the Union address, then it will help Obama in terms of deflecting the massive amount of criticism that has fallen on his shoulders alone.
 
Upon reflection, if Obama becomes the bastion of reason and the lone voice of sanity in a sea of cacophonous GOP fear-mongering, he will actually gain more in the long run from the losses that loom large at the moment. And there is every reason to believe that in 2016, any short-term gains for the GOP will be obliterated in the face of an onslaught of changing demographics. The GOP are on the wrong side of history when it comes to immigration, the minimum wage, health-care reform, and on all women’s and minorities issues. They will have to defend their records, and if Obama is forced to veto bills ending ACA and other progressive programs, the GOP may end up losing big in the long term.
 
**In answer to the wonderful world of Mitt Romney, there is a movement afoot to draft Mr. Romney again! In the old days, they drafted Adlai Stevenson, and Richard Nixon, to run several times before they found success (in Nixon's case, at least!). But in the modern era, that hasn’t happened. One can only imagine that the Dems would love to be thrown in that particular briar patch again. Because the 47% remark will never die as long as we have the Internet. Mitt will still brag of his binders full of women. In his estimation, “Corporations are People, my Friend!”…He will have a whole host of new and improved foot-in-mouth quotes, and the GOP still hasn’t moved an inch on women’s issues, on health-care reform, or on immigration.
 
That last point surprises even myself. How can they be so narrow-minded and continue to move ahead as if oblivious to the direction the country is trending? The Democratic Party has a short bench if Hillary decides not to run. There is Elizabeth Warren, there’s Governor Martin O’Malley, or perhaps Bernie Sanders (Independent) or even the Castro brothers? Long shots all, but for the GOP to talk of resurrecting Romney, they have nothing to write home about. Rand Paul is far too libertarian-minded for the GOP, Chris Christie is one of the walking wounded, and Jeb Bush carries a trunk full of baggage belonging to his dear brother George.
 
We shall see, but here’s hoping that Hillary runs. It will silence at least one half of the country clamoring for someone from the past to take up the gauntlet.
 

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